Bulgaria economic outlook 2026–2027: IMF, Fitch and EY forecasts
The IMF sees Bulgaria growing 2.6% in 2026 with 4.9% inflation; Fitch kept BBB+ with a positive outlook. What the forecasts mean for Varna.
Bulgaria’s economy should keep growing faster than the eurozone, but with stubbornly high inflation. In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.9%, BTA reported on 13 October. A month earlier, Fitch kept Bulgaria’s rating at BBB+ and raised the outlook to positive.
What does the IMF forecast for Bulgaria?
The IMF expects growth to slow slightly this year and inflation to stay near 5% into 2027, according to BTA and Novinite:
| IMF forecast (October 2026) | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2.6% (April: 2.8%) | 2.7% (April: 2.5%) |
| Average inflation (CPI) | 4.9% (April: 3.8%) | 4.8% (April: 3.7%) |
| Unemployment | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Current-account deficit | 8% of GDP (April: 4%) | 6.6% of GDP |
The Finance Ministry is more upbeat about this year. Its autumn forecast, BTA notes, sees 3% growth in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
What did Fitch decide?
On 26 September Fitch affirmed BBB+ and changed the outlook to positive. It cited lower political uncertainty after the April elections, a chance for reforms and cheaper debt financing since Bulgaria joined the euro area. A positive outlook means an upgrade is possible, not certain.
Fitch also warned of macroeconomic imbalances. It named strong wage growth, a risk of overheating, loose fiscal policy and fast growth in household lending. It put the current-account deficit at 7.4% of GDP and inflation at 4.9% in 2026, BTA reported; see also The Sofia Globe.
How high is inflation right now?
Eurostat’s harmonised index (HICP) showed 5.6% in September 2026, Novinite reported. That is the second-highest rate in the eurozone, after Lithuania (6.1%). The national CPI was 5.7%. For what got more expensive, see our September inflation report.
What does EY expect for 2027?
EY is more optimistic than the IMF. Its October outlook, reported by Novinite on 24 October, forecasts 2.9% growth in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. Its 2027 scenarios range from 2.9% to 3.7%.
What it means for Varna
- Everyday costs keep rising. With inflation near 5% into 2027, rents, services and eating out in Varna are unlikely to get cheaper. Wages are rising too, with a proposed 2027 minimum wage of €660.
- Credit fuels the housing market. BNB data show housing loans up 25.7% in a year to the end of July 2026; see our report on the housing loan boom. The NSI says home prices rose 15.5% nationally in Q2, and 2.8% in Varna over the quarter. Details: Varna property prices 2026.
- For relocators and investors, growth and a better rating outlook are positives. The deficits that Fitch and the IMF flag are the risks to watch. For budgets, see the cost of living in Varna 2026.
Figures are as of October 2026. We will update this page when new forecasts appear.
Sources
- BTA – IMF cuts Bulgaria's 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%, raises inflation outlook to 4.9% (13 Oct 2026)
- Novinite – IMF cuts Bulgaria's 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%, raises inflation estimate (14 Oct 2026)
- BTA – Fitch raises Bulgaria's rating outlook to positive, affirms BBB+ (26 Sep 2026)
- The Sofia Globe – Fitch keeps Bulgaria's credit rating unchanged at BBB+, raises outlook to positive (27 Sep 2026)
- Novinite – Bulgaria posts eurozone's second-highest inflation at 5.6% (Oct 2026)
- The Sofia Globe – Bulgaria's annual inflation climbs to 5.7% in September (14 Oct 2026)
- Novinite – Bulgaria's growth to reach 3.5% in 2027, EY forecasts (24 Oct 2026)
- The Sofia Globe – BNB - Loans to households in July 2026 up 20.8% y/y (27 Aug 2026)
- NSI – Housing price statistics, second quarter of 2026 (23 Sep 2026)
Frequently asked questions
What is the IMF forecast for Bulgaria's economy in 2026 and 2027?
In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook the IMF expects GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, with average inflation of 4.9% and 4.8% and unemployment of 3.4% and 3.3%.
What is Bulgaria's credit rating in 2026?
Fitch affirmed Bulgaria at BBB+ on 26 September 2026 and raised the outlook from stable to positive, which means an upgrade is possible but not certain.
Why is inflation in Bulgaria higher than in the rest of the eurozone?
Fitch points to very strong wage growth, booming household consumption and loose fiscal policy; fuel and transport prices also rose sharply in 2026. September HICP inflation was 5.6% against a eurozone average of 3.8%.
Is Bulgaria a good place to invest or move to in 2026?
The forecasts show growth above the eurozone average, low unemployment and an improving rating outlook, but also high inflation, a wide current-account deficit and fast-rising credit. Weigh both and check official sources before deciding.
